A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
